For those curious, I've done some more flying in the last couple of days. The balance as-flown was slightly ahead of the balance mark, but with throttle, it still tends to nose-up, especially when flying into the wind, so I'm not really worried about the balance any more; it's quite agreeable to fly as long as I keep an eye on the pitch attitude to keep it from climbing into a stall. I might mix a touch of elevator into the throttle axis to reduce this tendency, but it flies quite well and I flew it today until I got a battery warning.
The only problem is, the battery warning was on the radio. I had plenty of voltage left on the battery in the plane, but the transmitter's NiMH pack was complaining. I suspect that part of that was due to the cold, but it drained remarkably quickly in any case, which was quite frustrating. I probably only flew for 20-30 minutes before my transmitter started complaining. I'm definitely going to have to investigate a LiPo or LiFePO4 pack for it.