Qaud vs bird strike

[Rc high flyer]

Quad copter rips off the wing let the weakest part of the plane VS. bird hiting the nose
.


Tell me whats more likely to happen more often millions of birds flying south or one stupid person flying near a airport.

 

[Snarls]

I agree it is unfortunate there is so much sensationalism in the media about the threats of drones. It's just a technology that is not yet fully understood by the population. Also just pointing out that I heard the first picture is fake, but the fact that someone thought it would be nice to Photoshop such a picture is unfortunate in itself.

 

[ZoomNBoom]

Its already prohibited for birds to fly near airports!

Seriously though, we all know the dangers birds pose to aviation is quite real, yet a bird typically weighs ~2-300gr.
Our rc drones usually 5-10x that. Just because it hasnt happened yet, let us not pretend there is no risk involved, its just a matter of weighing it.

 

[Balu]

You do know that the quadcopter / aircraft wing crash is a hoax, right?

The wingtip says http://www.branit.com/ which is the website of a video effects guy.

 

[Torf]

Its already prohibited for birds to fly near airports!

Seriously though, we all know the dangers birds pose to aviation is quite real, yet a bird typically weighs ~2-300gr.
Our rc drones usually 5-10x that. Just because it hasnt happened yet, let us not pretend there is no risk involved, its just a matter of weighing it.

Birds that cause problems for aviation usually weigh a lot more than 300 grams. The most common and threatening strikes come from geese, gulls, dove species (pigeons), and birds of prey. The smallest by far is the Rock Dove, which usually weights from 300 grams to half a kilo. Gulls weigh 1.5 kilos and more, and the birds which cause the most damaging impacts to aircraft (flying fast at altitude, and not right near the runway) are geese and birds of prey which weigh 3-10 kilos.

There are so few multi-rotors that weigh more than 5x the weight of the "birdstrike" usual suspects as to be vanishingly small. Phantom quadcopters, which may as well stand in for all "evil drone sales", weighs about 1.2 kilos. Add to it the fact that there are roughly 4,000 birds for every multicopter in the US.

Lets face it. The risk is negligible. It can't be quantified in any scientific way. I sincerely wish people in the hobby and those involved in full scale aviation would stop overstating the danger and perhaps unwittingly lending support for draconian oversight or bans.

 

[ZoomNBoom]

Add to it the fact that there are roughly 4,000 birds for every multicopter in the US.

That many already? I mean multirotors?

Here is the thing though; as I argued in other threads, multirotors do not have anything like the situational awareness (eye sight, hearing) and survival instinct of birds, at least not yet. Ive done a fair amount of (full scale) gliding. Birds of prey are our guides and companions, they are the masters of thermaling. You cant sneak up on one, not from behind, not even in a virtually silent glider. I doubt you'll ever manage to crash in to one even if you wanted to, at least in a glider. Rarely, but it does happen that they attack you, but they always know you're there. I wish I could say the same of RC craft Ive encountered. So using quantity alone is not representative of the risk.

(BTW, come to think of it, I dont actually recall ever encountering a goose in flight. Not sure if thats a seasonal thing, them being scared or flying low or whatever. I know they are there, just never seen one in flight. Even pigeons are rare, far rarer than birds of prey, of which there are infinitely less, but you meet them pretty much every flight. Also, fwiw, I have on at least two occasions encountered RC planes and multirotors at flying altitude).

And then there is the number problem. As it is today, I'll agree the problem might be overstated by many (though not non existent). But fast forward 10 years. The EU commission gathers civilian UAV's will be a &#8364;15B market by then. These researchers estimate by then it will be a $80B market in the US alone. Thats a whole lot of drones. If you take a relatively high estimate of $10K per drone, thats ~8 million drones. At that price, not likely <1Kg drones. Thats ~3 commercial UAVs for every Canadian goose. And ~2000 commercial UAV's for every large passenger aircraft.

Lastly, its worth pointing out that the FAA regulation will apply to that category only. Not to hobbyist craft in so far they dont fly in controlled airspace. In the future, the hobby will represent only a tiny fraction of the market. I wouldnt worry nearly as much about upcoming FAA regulation as I would about the commercial market that may want to drive the hobbyists out.

 

[Corbarrad]

Having to read about this fake again and before my morning coffe at that made my blood pressure go through the roof.
Have mercy on me, people.
That octocopter is totally out of scale, the speed isn't nearly high enough for a plane in flight and the winglet looks like an alka seltzer flimed sideways while disintegrating.

Please, please please for the love of everything that's dear to you stop reposting things from this video. It doesnt deserve the attention. The author doesn't deserve the attention. The guys that repost it for clickbait don't deserve the attention three times over.

And then there is the number problem. As it is today, I'll agree the problem might be overstated by many (though not non existent). But fast forward 10 years. The EU commission gathers civilian UAV's will be a &#8364;15B market by then. These researchers estimate by then it will be a $80B market in the US alone. Thats a whole lot of drones. If you take a relatively high estimate of $10K per drone, thats ~8 million drones. At that price, not likely <1Kg drones. Thats ~3 commercial UAVs for every Canadian goose. And ~2000 commercial UAV's for every large passenger aircraft.

I only had the chance to skim the document you linked before I went off to work, but I'm pretty sure the figure you quoted applies not only to the amount spent on commercial UAVs but also the money earned using them, so your drone count will be off by a decimal or three.

 

[Torf]

The best I could find is that there are an estimated ~20 billion birds in the US, and there are an estimated ~5 million multi-rotors. What I don't know is whether these numbers count the tiny 'copters that people fly indoors or around their yards, or how many are no longer in service. It's based on sales figures from reported sources. The bird number is a quasi-scientific estimate that I have read from several sources.

While 'copters might not have very good situational awareness, the vast majority of their flying is done in limited areas, where aviation is not generally done. Birds, usually displaying situational awareness, are nevertheless not limited in any practical way in their flight, other than what nature does species by species.

I don't fly gliders (yet), so I can't attest to bird interactions with gliders at 45-65 kts near thermals or whatever, but I have seen numerous eagles, hawks, geese and multitudes of shorebirds at various times while flying. Even as a passenger, I'm the guy who loves the window and looks out the entire flight, so I notice quite a variety of "air traffic". In fact, just the other day, I was flying to Southern California enjoying the view of a thunderstorm north of us in Arizona when I saw a meteor. Noticed it right away as it brightened and streaked downward. It seemed greenish and right about the time it got somewhere between the thunderhead and our plane, it broke in two visible pieces, flared and went dark. I was surprised to see one penetrate so deeply into the atmosphere. It was lit up well below the level of the plane, and it passed between us and the thunderstorm, so it was less than 30 miles away and probably much less.

According to NASA, 100 tons of material falls into the atmosphere daily, and a fraction reaches earth. In 2014, a wingsuit skydiver was almost struck by a falling meteor (captured with his camera).

Interesting stuff to say the least.

Not meaning to be pedantic, but the $80 Billion market for commercial drones makes up a lot more than the purchase price of the aircraft. This means you can't divide the market up by a cost, and expect to yield solid numbers. The Market includes R&D, consulting, associated overhead costs, marketing, lending, real estate, service and parts, intellectual property, profit etc, in addition to actual multi-rotor sales.

 

[ZoomNBoom]

The best I could find is that there are an estimated ~20 billion birds in the US, and there are an estimated ~5 million multi-rotors.

Im pretty sure the vast majority of those 5 million fit in the palm of your hand. Id be surprised if 350+mm multirotor (DJI phantom and up) sales would already be in the millions in the US.

Not meaning to be pedantic, but the $80 Billion market for commercial drones makes up a lot more than the purchase price of the aircraft. This means you can't divide the market up by a cost, and expect to yield solid numbers. The Market includes R&D, consulting, associated overhead costs, marketing, lending, real estate, service and parts, intellectual property, profit etc, in addition to actual multi-rotor sales.

Nope. Everything you mentioned there has to be covered by the sales price, otherwise these companies couldnt continue to exist. Economic impact can extend beyond just sales, but most of those factors (training, support, maintenance, to name just a few obvious) are explicitly omitted in that report. And they do state actual unit numbers, for agriculture alone, which they identify as by far the largest market, they estimate the market will grow to 150K units per year with units having a lifespan of 11 years.

TBH, I think they overemphasize agriculture, I also think they overstate the average cost of these drones - crop dusters will be pricey, but anything used for imaging and data collection isnt going to cost a fortune in 10 years; and I think they understate what other markets will contribute, things like construction, inspection, mapping, surveillance (a nearby nuclear research facility just bought a few drones to complement and/or replace dog+foot patrols) and perhaps even small parcel delivery.

Regardless of what the actual numbers will be, if your job is keeping aviation safe, the prospect of millions of commercial UAVs that, compared to planes and helicopters, will have negligible per hour flying costs, is cause for concern. More so than meteorites.

 

[Torf]

Nope. Everything you mentioned there has to be covered by the sales price, otherwise these companies couldnt continue to exist. Economic impact can extend beyond just sales, but most of those factors (training, support, maintenance, to name just a few obvious) are explicitly omitted in that report. And they do state actual unit numbers, for agriculture alone, which they identify as by far the largest market, they estimate the market will grow to 150K units per year with units having a lifespan of 11 years.

I understand that for an individual company, revenue must exceed cost, but I'm referring to markets as a whole. What about other companies who generate revenue based on the use of multi-copters? Take for instance a guy who does soil consulting and wants to be able to overlay aerial imagery over Veris data? That adds a lot of value to the multi-copter market, without directly increasing the number of units sold. That's also something that may or may not exist today depending on who is asking and who is billing the customer.