Yeah, I forget that we have some brand new people to the hobby sometimes.
My dad flew competitively for a few years and the winning flight was always a combination of many things; reading the field, the airframe, pilot flying skill, and, even they admitted, a little luck in changing or borderline conditions. Being able to predict where lift will be, is probably top of that list and what separates the real pilots from the rest of us. You definitely nailed that one for sure!